I was out last week, celebrating a close friend’s wedding in Hawaii, so the recap for this week’s column will be short. Our first team prop week was a success, with a 2-1 record on the strength of backing the Chargers in Kansas City and fading the Steelers against the Bengals. And really, we should be fading the Steelers every week until they give us a reason to think their offense might not be a mess.
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Two weeks ago: 2-1
Season: 6-5
Bumper Crop Prop (favorite prop of the week): Cardinals over 30.5 points, +135
I won’t spend too much time on this one. The Arizona offense has scored at least 31 points in three of four games this season. They’re third in the league in yards per play, second in yards per pass attempt, and fourth in the league in offensive EPA. They’re first in scoring and second in points per drive. They’ve entered Chiefs territory. We know they aren’t going to score 30-plus every week, but we should start from the baseline that they are going to score 30 in their next game.
The 49ers have surrendered 30 and 28 points to the Packers and Seahawks, respectively, in their last two games. They haven’t given us any reason to believe they can slow down a good offense over the course of 60 minutes, and the Cardinals will be the best offense they’ve faced this season. By many measures—defensive EPA, points per drive allowed, yards per play allowed—the 49ers are solidly in the middle of the pack. No one’s saying this will be a walk in the park for the Cardinals, but we should operate from the standpoint that their offense has an assumed advantage over the defense in every matchup. I’ll take plus money on them scoring more than 30.5 points until and unless we see some real cracks in the armor.
Lions over 2.5 touchdowns, +145
The Lions have gone over 2.5 touchdowns in one game this season, and that was back in Week 1 when they went on that fluky, furious run in the fourth quarter against the 49ers. We’re getting this at +145 for a reason. This is a nice opportunity to take a shot at plus money, though, in a spot that might be leaning a bit too much on what the Lions have done to this point of the season, overlooking what they could do in this particular game.
Let’s start with the basic lines on this game. The Lions are nine-point underdogs to the Vikings, and the game has a total of 49.5 points. That gives the Lions an implied total of 20.25 points, just south of the three touchdowns they’d need for us to win the bet. BetMGM has the Lions over 20.5 points priced at +105, a slight underdog. Already, the +145 looks friendlier to bettors than would a projection leaning purely on the Lions’ performance to date. The market isn’t significantly in our favor, but it is enough of a lean in our direction to make the +145 stand out.
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There are multiple reasons to stay away from this wager. Again, we’re getting +145 for a reason. The one that jumps out at me, though, has to do with how hard the Vikings could make life for the Lions’ passing game. Per TruMedia statistics, the Lions have allowed the sixth-highest pressure rate in the league, while the Vikings have the fourth-highest sack rate. If the Lions can protect Jared Goff, though, he can take advantage of a defense that has allowed the ninth-highest quarterback rating and fourth-most yards per attempt this season. The Lions surprisingly rank fifth in the NFL with 17 pass plays of at least 20 yards, and while part of that is supported by them having the fifth-most attempts in the league, they have been able to make more happen downfield than their personnel would suggest is likely.
Week 5 ATS picks
Rams -2.5 over SEAHAWKS
Jets +3 over Falcons (in London)
Packers -3 over BENGALS
Lions +9 over VIKINGS
Broncos +1 over STEELERS
BUCCANEERS -10 over Dolphins
WASHINGTON +1.5 over Saints
PANTHERS -3.5 over Eagles
Titans -4 over JAGUARS
TEXANS +9.5 over Patriots
BEARS +5.5 over Raiders
CHARGERS -2.5 over Browns
COWBOYS -7 over Giants
CARDINALS -5.5 over 49ers
CHIEFS -3 over Bills
RAVENS -6.5 over Colts
Last two weeks: 20-12
Season: 37-26-1
And here’s my record from last week, since there was no column. Proof!
(Top photo: Jamie Sabau/Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article)
Michael Beller is a senior producer, podcast host and writer at The Athletic. Michael was previously the fantasy sports editor and a staff writer covering college basketball at Sports Illustrated. Follow Michael on Twitter @MBeller
